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orbus editor in chief

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Deutsche Welle
West-D. Zeitung

The man of the year

Guy Verhofstadt
Mr. Guy Verhofstadt

The man of the year
L'homme de l'an
De man van het jaar

A proven Democrat, protector and fighter for justice and human rights in the World.

Een bewezen Democraat, beschermer en strijder voor rechtvaardigheid en mensenrechten in de Wereld.

Un prouvé démocrate, protecteur et combattant pour la justice et des droits de l'homme dans le Mond.

Eine bewährte Demokrat, Beschützer und Kämpfer für Gerechtigkeit und Menschenrechte in der Welt.

Dokazani demokrat,
 zaštitnik i borac za pravdu i ljudska prava u Svijetu.

Peace in the World

Mr. Barak Hossein Obama

peace in the world

vrede in de wereld

la paix dans le monde

Garantie des Friedens in der Welt

mieru vo svete

mira u svijetu

Murray Hunter
University Malaysia Perlis

Perpetual Self conflict: Self awareness as a key to our ethical drive, personal mastery, and perception of entrepreneurial opportunities.
Murray Hunter

The Continuum of Psychotic Organisational Typologies
Murray Hunter

There is no such person as an entrepreneur, just a person who acts entrepreneurially
Murray Hunter

Groupthink may still be a hazard to your organization - Murray Hunter

Generational Attitudes and Behaviour - Murray Hunter

The environment as a multi-dimensional system: Taking off your rose coloured glasses - Murray Hunter

Imagination may be more important than knowledge: The eight types of imagination we use - Murray Hunter

Do we have a creative intelligence? - Murray Hunter

Not all opportunities are the same: A look at the four types of entrepreneurial opportunity - Murray Hunter

   The Evolution of Business Strategy - Murray Hunter

How motivation really works - Murray Hunter

Evaluating Entrepreneurial Opportunities: What’s wrong with SWOT? - Murray Hunter

 The five types of thinking we use - Murray Hunter

Where do entrepreneurial opportunities come from? - Murray Hunter

  How we create new ideas - Murray Hunter

How emotions influence, how we see the world? - Murray Hunter


Dear friends of ESI,

A new ESI report Caviar Diplomacy: How Azerbaijan Silenced the Council of Europe Part One – which was published today describes how an authoritarian regime in Baku has managed to sidestep its commitments to the Council of Europe, silenced its critics and turned international election monitoring into political theatre.

This is the story of how Europe's oldest human rights organisation has been neutered by a smart and ruthless policy. Azerbaijani officials referred to it as "caviar diplomacy": a policy that began in 2001, not long after Azerbaijan joined the Council of Europe, the continent's club of democratic nations. It gathered speed after Ilham Aliyev, who had served in the Council of Europe's parliamentary assembly (PACE), became president of Azerbaijan in 2003. Once the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline was completed in 2005 and the Azerbaijani state coffers were awash in oil revenues, the "caviar policy" shifted into top gear.

The aim was to win and retain the stamp of legitimacy conferred by Council of Europe membership while preserving the authoritarian structures of an autocratic regime. Azerbaijan has not held a single competitive election since Heydar Aliyev, the father of current president Ilham Aliyev, came to power in 1993, following a coup against the first elected president. The Central Election Commission, in charge of organising elections, has stacked the deck so firmly in favour of the incumbent government that no political competition is possible, fair or otherwise. In the parliamentary election of 2010, not a single opposition candidate managed to win a seat.

How, then, could the head of the PACE election observation mission in 2010 declare that the elections had met international and Council of Europe standards? Why, when the human rights situation has steadily deteriorated since 2003, has debate in PACE on Azerbaijan become ever more anodyne, even complimentary?

Beneath the institutional failure, it is also a story about individuals and the difference they can make, for better or worse, within institutions like the Council of Europe. The cast of this story – the critics and the apologists – are Swiss, Belgian, British, German, Spanish and Turkish; they are liberals, social democrats, conservatives, nationalists and former communists. In Azerbaijan too many of them have betrayed the values and traditions set out in the European Convention on Human Rights. The result may well be the most serious crisis of legitimacy in the history of the Council of Europe.

When Azerbaijan was admitted to the Council of Europe, despite well documented democratic failings, it was with the idea that Council of Europe membership would gradually transform Azerbaijan. Sadly, the reverse has occurred. The outcome is a tragedy for the citizens of Azerbaijan, particularly those brave pro-democracy activists who languish in jail as political prisoners. But it is also a tragedy for Europe, whose values have been trampled. For the PACE parliamentarians enjoying the benefits of caviar diplomacy are also sitting members of national parliaments across Europe. And it is certainly a tragedy for the Council of Europe itself, which urgently needs to recover the values its founders entrusted it with if it is to justify its continued existence.

Many best wishes,

Gerald Knaus

Gerald Knaus

Contact :
European Stability Initiative (ESI)
Grossbeerenstrasse 83
10963 Berlin

Tel: +49 30 53214455
Fax: +49 30 53214457

© European Stability Initiative (ESI)

Gunboat Diplomacy in the South China Sea – Chinese strategic mistake

On the eastern, ascendant flank of the Eurasian continent, the Chinese vertigo economy is overheated and too-well integrated in the petrodollar system. Beijing, presently, cannot contemplate or afford to allocate any resources in a search for an alternative. (The Sino economy is low-wage- and labor intensive- centered. Chinese revenues are heavily dependent on exports and Chinese reserves are predominantly a mix of the USD and US Treasury bonds.) To sustain itself as a single socio-political and formidably performing economic entity, the People’s Republic requires more energy and less external dependency. Domestically, the demographic-migratory pressures are huge, regional demands are high, and expectations are brewing. Considering its best external energy dependency equalizer (and inner cohesion solidifier), China seems to be turning to its military upgrade rather than towards the resolute alternative energy/Green Tech investments – as it has no time, plan or resources to do both at once. Inattentive of a broader picture, Beijing (probably falsely) believes that lasting containment, especially in the South China Sea, is unbearable, and that – at the same time – fossil-fuels are available (e.g., in Africa and the Gulf), and even cheaper with the help of warships.

In effect, the forthcoming Chinese military buildup will only strengthen the existing and open up new bilateral security deals of neighboring countries, primarily with the US – as nowadays in Asia, none wants to be a passive downloader. Ultimately, it may create a politico-military isolation (and financial burden) for China that would consequently justify and (politically and financially) cheapen the bolder American military presence in the Asia-Pacific, especially in the South China Sea. It perfectly adds up to the intensified demonization of China in parts of influential Western media. Hence, the Chinese grab for fossil fuels or its military competition for naval control is not a challenge but rather a boost for the US Asia-Pacific – even an overall – posture. (Managing the contraction of its overseas projection and commitments – some would call it managing the decline of an empire – the US does not fail to note that nowadays half of the world’s merchant tonnage passes though the South China Sea. Therefore, the US will exploit any regional territorial dispute and other frictions to its own security benefit, including the costs sharing of its military presence by the local partners, as to maintain pivotal on the maritime edge of Asia that arches from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, Malacca and South China Sea up to the northwest–central Pacific.) A real challenge is always to optimize the (moral political and financial) costs in meeting the national strategic objectives. In this case, it would be a resolute turn of China towards green technology, coupled with the firm buildup of the Asian multilateralism. Without a grand rapprochement to the champions of multilateralism in Asia, which are Indonesia, India and Japan, there is no environment for China to seriously evolve and emerge as a formidable, lasting and trusted global leader[1]. Consequently, what China needs in Asia is not a naval race of 1908, but the Helsinki process of 1975.

Opting for either strategic choice will reverberate in the dynamic Asia–Pacific theatre. However, the messages are diametrical: An assertive military – alienates, new technology – attracts neighbors. Finally, armies conquer (and spend) while technology builds (and accumulates)! At this point, any eventual accelerated armament in the Asia-Pacific theatre would only strengthen the hydrocarbon status quo. With its present configuration, it is hard to imagine that anybody can outplay the US in the petro-security, petro-financial and petro-military global playground in the following few decades. Given the planetary petro-financial-tech-military causal constellations, this type of confrontation is so well mastered by and would further only benefit the US and the closest of its allies.

Within the OECD/IEA grouping, or closely; the G-8 (the states with resources, infrastructure, tradition of and know-how to advance the fundamental technological breakthroughs), it is only Japan that may seriously consider a Green/Renewable-tech U-turn. Tokyo’s external energy dependencies are stark and long-lasting. After the recent nuclear trauma, Japan will need a few years to (psychologically and economically) absorb the shock – but it will learn a lesson. For such a huge formidable economy and considerable demography, situated on a small land-mass which is repeatedly brutalized by devastating natural catastrophes (and dependent on yet another disruptive external influence – Arab oil), it might be that a decisive shift towards green energy is the only way to survive, revive, and eventually to emancipate.

An important part of the US–Japan security treaty is the US energy supply lines security guaranty given to (the post-WWII demilitarized) Tokyo. After the recent earthquake-tsunami-radiation Armageddon, as well as witnessing the current Chinese military/naval noise, Japan will inevitably rethink and revisit its energy policy, as well as the composition of its primary energy mix.

Tokyo is well aware that the Asian geostrategic myopias are strong and lasting, as many Asian states are either locked up in their narrow regionalisms or/and entrenched in their economic egoisms. Finally, Japan is the only Asian country that has clearly learned from its own modern history, all about the limits of hard power projection and the strong repulsive forces that come in aftermath from the neighbors. Their own pre-modern and modern history does not offer a similar experience to other two Asian heavyweights, China and India. That indicates the Far East as a probable zone of the Green-tech excellence and a place of attraction for many Asians in the decade to come.

Anis H. Bajrektarevic, Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member
Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies

Vienna,  May 20, 2012


[1] More on the pan-Asian architectures in my 2011 work: “Preventive diplomacy: No Asian century…”


The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. IFIMES has analysed current events in Serbia in view of the second round of early presidential election scheduled for 20 May 2012. The most interesting sections from the analysis entitled “SERBIA: MILOŠEVIĆ'S PEOPLE DECIDE ABOUT THE FUTURE OF SERBIA” are published below.



The first round of presidential election in Serbia took place on 6 May 2012. The largest amount of votes went to Boris Tadić (25,33%) from the coalition “For a better life – Boris Tadić” and Tomislav Nikolić (24,99%) from the coalition “Let’s move Serbia – Tomislav Nikolić”.

The majority of votes at the parliamentary election went to the following coalitions: “Let’s move Serbia – Tomislav Nikolić” (24,01%), “For a better life – Boris Tadić” (22,07%) and “Ivica Dačić – SPS, PUPS, JS” (14,54%).

The second round of Serbian parliamentary election is going to take place on 20 May 2012. Both candidates, Tadić and Nikolić, are also leaders of their respective parties, Boris Tadić is the president of the Democratic Party (DS), Tomislav Nikolić is the president of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). Despite the fact that Nikolić’s SNS won the election (24,01%), it probably won’t be able to form the new government of the Republic of Serbia.

The presidential, parliamentary, provincial and local elections went by with a notion of reasonable suspicion and serious accusations for election theft and election irregularities. The allegations did not only come from Serbian Progressive Party as the winner but also from other parties which withdrew their allegations about the election irregularities due to the regime pressures and thus silently accepted the election theft. A typical example of this is a minority party called “the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians” (SVM), led by Istvan Pasztor, who succumbed to the pressures of the regime and voted for the adoption of the report of the election results at the meeting of the Republican Electoral Commission (RIK) and thus allowed the legalization of an unfair election and election fraud. Their vote was crucial and decisive. Istvan Pasztor, the president of SVM, tried to justify his move by explaining that they don’t want to destabilize the country and want to preserve peace and stability by legalizing the elections.

In previous analyses the IFIMES International Institute pointed out that the highest political circle in Serbia, symbolised by Boris Tadić, has shown that its functioning resembles that of an organised criminal group in several aspects. Tadić’s Democratic Party has been in power for the past 12 years, which represents an excessively long period of government for any political party. Serbia's incumbent regime has not proven to be resistant to organised crime and corruption, which is illustrated by numerous examples. Some of those examples have been pointed out by the EU in the European Parliament Resolution adopted on 29 March 2012. EP demanded Serbian authorities to carry out investigation and review of dubious privatisation processes in 24 companies. Investigations into above privatisation processes which have already been carried out have shown that in most cases the key role was played by Boris Tadić and some high officials from his Democratic Party as well as Mlađan Dinkić, president of G17 Plus and leader of the United Regions of Serbia (URS) coalition. The European Union has expressed serious doubts concerning the legality of company privatisation processes, including those of Sartid, Jugoremedija, Mobtel, C market” and “ATP Vojvodina”. EU demanded Serbian authorities to declassify immediately documents classified as State Secret regarding the privatisation and sale of those companies, which is contrary to European standards. A notable case was that of “Mobtel” which was sold to the controversial Austrian businessman Martin Schlaff and subsequently to Norwegian Telenor for EUR 1,513 billion. Should Tadić's Democratic Party form the new government of Serbia again, the situation will become absurd since the revision of dubious privatisations will be carried out by the same government which carried out those privatisations.

The IFIMES International Institute is of the opinion that the revision of dubious privatisation processes should be carried out by independent international auditing firms at the request of the EU whereby appropriate monitoring should be ensured.


In previous surveys and analyses we highlighted the connections between Tadić’s regime and organized crime. In addition to the above mentioned Tadić and Dinkić, the current Minister of Internal Affairs and the president of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Ivica Dačić was also found to be connected with crime or criminals. Dačić’s connections with crime stem from the times of Slobodan Milošević rule in Serbia. Nevertheless, the alarming fact is that Dačić is a minister responsible for the state's repressive authority which also fights organized crime, while he may be the one who collaborated the most with criminals. Dačić’s role in “the Šarić case” and drug trafficking is still insufficiently investigated.

Dačić’s connection and collaboration with criminal structures is also confirmed by his inclusion on the “black list” of the American Administration and then his mysterious removal from this list, which raises the question whether this removal from “the black list” by the US authorities involves some corruptive elements?

Moreover, Dačić is one of the agents in the “Suitcase” affair, which also involved the former vice-governor of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS)
Dejan Simić and the SPS functionary Vladimir Zagrađanin. They were acquitted of all charges for bribery after pressuring the court. The Superior Court in Belgrade acquitted them of all charges, despite the fact that it was indisputably confirmed during the trial that a suitcase with 100,000 Euro was found in Simić’s and Zagrađanin’s possession at the moment of their arrest. Dejan Simić’s charge was that he, as the vice-governor, demanded a bribe of 2 million Euros from the representative of the Israeli “TBI Group”, so that he could permit operation to the Export-Credit Bank. Simić was arrested on 11 January 2006 in his apartment, together with the SPS functionary Vladimir Zagrađanin. The police found a bag with 100,000 Euros in Simić’s apartment. That evening, Zagrađanin was visiting Simić together with Ivica Dačić, but Ivica Dačić left the apartment just some minutes before the police raided it.

Tadić’s connection with the organized crime is also illustrated by the visit of the Norwegian Prime Minister
Jens Stoltenberg, who visited Belgrade and expressed his support for Boris Tadić in the second round of presidential election and also for the mobile operator Telenor, owned by the Norwegian Telenor. Serbian Telenor was recently sold to the Norwegians through dubious privatization of “Mobtel” and mediation by Martin Schlaff, with Boris Tadić presiding over the steering committee of PE PTT Communications “Serbia”, a co-owner of “Mobtel”, and being the Minister of Telecommunications at the same time.

Boris Tadić led the Ministry of Telecommunications and presided the steering committee of PE PTT Communications “Serbia” at the same time for a longer period of time. PE PTT Communications “Serbia” shared the ownership of “Mobtel” with
Bogoljub Karić. The role of president Tadić regarding the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings from that period is not clear yet, nor are determining the amount of the start-up capital, preparing the company for sale to the buyer connected to his party (DS), the sponsorship ordered by Boris Tadić etc. The investigating authorities have not yet heard or prosecuted Tadić regarding these issues.

The contract dated 4 April 2006, the day when “Mobtel’s” property was illegally taken over by the newly established company “Mobi 63”, which was then sold to Telenor and declared a state secret, was also controversial. Why is a commercial contract called a state secret and for whose interests? Where did 1.513 million Euros earned by selling “Mobtel” to the foreign owner disappear?

The role of Martin Schlaff and Austrian State Telecom in these affairs are also being investigated in Austria, with Austrian Prosecutor's Office conducting an investigation against Schlaff and other individuals who participated in these affairs. Besides the Prosecution’s investigation, an Investigating Commission of the Austrian Parliament has been formed in September 2011, investigating the role of Martin Schlaff and the former vice-Chancellor
Hubert Gorbach who participated in this affair, former Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and other individuals. Right after the formation of the Investigating Commission Schüssel resigned from the position of the MP in the Austrian Parliament.

It is obvious that we’re facing elements of an organized criminal group here, which can be further proven by the involvement of the former European Commissioner
Benita Ferrero Waldner and some other highly positioned EU functionaries in this affair, as well as Serbian functionaries. Austrian investigation will inevitably lead to Serbia and Boris Tadić, Mlađan Dinkić, Vuk Jeremić, and others connected to Martin Schlaff.


The depth of the crisis in the Serbian society is illustrated also by the results of the parliamentary election, where Milošević’s SPS, led by Ivica Dačić in the recent years, won the third place. Dačić is burdened by the past, that is Milošević’s regime and crime. Had Serbia carried out lustration, Dačić would have been permanently disqualified from performing any public function, including those at the local level. However, Dačić and SPS, thanks to Tadić and DS, are now deciding about the future of Serbia. The firm cooperation between Tadić’s DS and Milošević’s SPS since 2008 has taken away the purport of the democratic change in Serbia, which symbolically began on 5 October 2000.

That’s why the current authorities are opposing the opening of classified files which represent a stern test of political will to relieve secret services from the burden of Slobodan Milošević's legacy .

However, Boris Tadić and his Democratic Party are once again looking for support from Ivica Dačić and his SPS in order to maintain their power. Thus, they want to form a new government with the support of Milošević’s SPS, ensuring Tadić his third term of office at the presidential election.

One of the key problems in Serbia is the malfunctioning of the rule of law. If the rule of law and its institutions operated efficiently, many problems in Serbian society would not exist at all. There would be no retroactive tax assessment resulting in enormous sums, which most companies cannot pay and consequently have to declare bankruptcy. A systematic racketeering of business people and companies is taking place. A known example is
Stanko Subotić, who became an unwanted person and faced prosecution after he stopped paying racket to Tadić's regime and especially to the Democratic Party. Why did the Prosecution fail to react to Subotić’s allegations, when he publicly admitted that he was paying rackets to Boris Tadić and to people close to him. Why did the Prosecution fail to initiate proceedings in this case?

The IFIMES International Institute believes that if Boris Tadić wins, Serbia will once again have the president who will not act in line with the Constitution and life in Serbia will keep spinning in the vicious circle of politics, Mafia and crime.

Ljubljana, 18 May 2012

International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) - Ljubljana


Bakhtyar Aljaf    Zijad Bećirović, M.Sc.




LJUBLJANA/BLED, 8 May 2012 – On Monday, 7 May 2012, the International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) presented the award “World Personality of the Decade” to Prime Minister of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The award was officially presented by former President of the Republic of Croatia and the Honorary President of the IFIMES International Institute Stjepan Mesić and former Prime Minister of the Republic of Serbia and Vice-President of the Advisory Board of the IFIMES International Institute Zoran Živković.

At the award ceremony, a speech was delivered by the Director of the IFIMES Institute Zijad Bećirović, and the letter from the President of IFIMES Council Craig T. Smith, former White House Political Director, was read.

Prime Minister Erdoğan thanked for the award and delivered an extensive speech in which he presented the role Turkey plays in international relations, stressing that the country will continue its active co-operation in the international community.

During the last decade, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan has become a recognisable leader in the world. During his leadership, Turkey has managed to make an economic breakthrough which has brought numerous positive changes in all fields. His contribution to global stability and security is especially visible in the Middle East and Balkan regions. Under his leadership Turkey has become a country needed by both the East and the West, and Erdoğan has become a recognised world leader. “He wins special praise for his efforts to establish cooperation and dialogue within Turkey as well as in the neighbouring countries, the region and the world,” was stated in the laudatory speech, pointing also to numerous initiatives he has taken. Special stress was laid on the Alliance of Civilisations initiative he proposed together with the former Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero to United Nations in 2005. The initiative was marked as an attempt to unite societies against extremism and to overcome various inter-civilisational prejudices, misconceptions and polarisation that represent a potential threat to world peace.

The most difficult task for every politician and prime minister is to win recognition in their own country, especially in the period of the global economic crisis. Erdoğan and his government managed to make an economic miracle. He has thus won recognition not only at home but also in the wider region and in the world. The numerous initiatives he has taken have shown that he does not follow selfish interests but aims to contribute to regional and global stability and security.

Prime Minister Erdoğan has proven that the modern world needs Turkey and that Turkey needs the modern world. Therefore the award also represents a form of recognition to his closest friends, co-workers and all the citizens of the Republic of Turkey, was stated at the conclusion of the laudatory speech.

Ljubljana, May 8, 20122

International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) - Ljubljana

Bakhtyar Aljaf & Zijad Bećirović

International Institute for Middle-East
and Balkan Studies - (IFIMES)
Vošnjakova 1, P.O. Box 2795
Tel.++386 1 430 15 33
Fax. ++ 386 1 430 15 34



     Where do entrepreneurial opportunities come from? - Murray Hunter

     The five types of thinking we use - Murray Hunter

     Evaluating Entrepreneurial Opportunities: What’s wrong with SWOT? - Murray Hunter

     How motivation really works - Murray Hunter

     The Evolution of Business Strategy - Murray Hunter

     Not all opportunities are the same: A look at the four types of entrepreneurial opportunity - Murray Hunter

  Do we have a creative intelligence? - Murray Hunter

     Imagination may be more important than knowledge: The eight types of imagination we use - Murray Hunter

     The environment as a multi-dimensional system: Taking off your rose coloured glasses - Murray Hunter

     Generational Attitudes and Behaviour - Murray Hunter

     Groupthink may still be a hazard to your organization - Murray Hunter

  Perpetual Self conflict: Self awareness as a key to our ethical drive, personal mastery, and perception of entrepreneurial opportunities - Murray Hunter

     The Continuum of Psychotic Organisational Typologies - Murray Hunter

There is no such person as an entrepreneur, just a person who acts entrepreneurially - Murray Hunter

     Go Home, Occupy Movement!!-(The McFB– Was Ist Das?) - prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

     Diplomatie préventive - Aucun sičcle Asiatique sans l’institution pan-Asiatique - prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

Democide Mass-Murder and the New World Order - Paul Adams



Koninkrijk Belgie - Monarchie Belgique

Maasmechelen Village

Maasmechelen Village


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prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic
prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

Go Home, Occupy Movement!! - (The McFB – Was Ist Das?) -
prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

Diplomatie préventive - Aucun sičcle Asiatique sans l’institution pan-Asiatique - prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

Gunboat Diplomacy in the South China Sea – Chinese strategic mistake -
Anis H. Bajrektarevic

Geopolitics of Quantum Buddhism: Our Pre-Hydrocarbon Tao Future
prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

The Mexico-held G–20 voices its concerns over the situation in the EURO zone - Anis H. Bajrektarevic