The return of Kevin Rudd as Australian PM: For how long?

Murray Hunter
 

The Australian Prime Ministership underwent a rapid change in Canberra on Wednesday night.

The now former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard started her day with rough questioning from the Opposition leader Tony Abbott on the floor of the parliament, while the government benches were ablaze with talk and movement concerning a challenge by Kevin Rudd for her position. As the day went along there was rumor of a petition being circulated calling for a spill motion for the leadership position of the labor party, which would also entitle the leader to be prime minister if he had the confidence of the house. With this siege going on against Gillard, the petition actually never materialized, the prime minister herself called for a vote in the party room at 7pm that night, on the condition that whoever lost would also leave politics completely, such the bitterness of this challenge.

Just about an hour before the historic meeting Labor Minister and powerbroker Bill Shorten called a snap press conference to announce his abandonment of PM Julia Gillard and support of Kevin Rudd. The switch of loyalty of two strong supporters of Gillard, Senators Penny Wong and Bob Carr brought an expectation of change to the parliamentary corridors, leading to a 57-45 vote in favor of Rudd, with the popular Anthony Albanese elected as deputy leader and becoming deputy prime minister, replacing Wayne Swan.

Rudd had been undermining Julia Gillard as Prime Minister ever since she deposed him for being unpopular with the Australian electorate in 2010. Rudd, elected by the people in 2007 had always believed he was the legitimate leader of the Labor Party and should be the prime minister of Australia.

Last night was Rudd's third challenge against Gillard. In the second challenge Rudd failed to even put himself forward as he didn't have the numbers. This forced ministers like Kim Carr and Chris Bowen to resign indicating the deep division within the party due to the bitterness between Rudd and Gillard. This third attempt last night probably succeeded because most members of the labor caucus knew that Labor under Gillard would probably lose up to 30 seats in the coming polls against Abbott's Liberal National Party Coalition.  They saw Rudd as the only chance for Labor to reconnect with the people.

However within an hour of the ballot, Labor looked like falling part with six ministers Wayne Swan, Greg Combet, Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett, Stephen Conroy, and Joe Ludwig all resigning from the ministry. What made it even worse was that most of them also said they would retire from parliament as well. On Thursday Defense Minister Stephen Smith he would retire in this coming election.

The Rudd challenge has saved Gillard from a disastrous defeat at the polls where Labor would have only maintained a small handful of seats which would make it difficult for any future leader to rebuild the party from. A large section of the Australian electorate had still not forgiven her for the way she disposed of Kevin Rudd in 2010.

Although Gillard had of achievements during her stewardship of the government, this did not generate electoral popularity for her, which in the view of many people in the party was bringing the labor vote down. During the last two weeks where Gillard was defending herself against Rudd's attacks, she tried to mobilize public support with the gender issue, which only seemed to polarize her supporter base even more.

Rudd had always been popular with the Australian people. Rudd knows how to play the media and campaigning is his strength. His campaigning abilities inflicted so much damage on the Howard Government during the 2007 election, even former prime minister John Howard lost his seat in parliament. For many parliamentarians he is their only hope of remaining in parliament after the election. Rudd has for months been operating like a de facto opposition leader walking around shopping malls in marginal electorates of Western Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane, helping out these members.
Rudd is opposition leader Tony Abbott's worst nightmare. Up until 6.30pm last night it was almost a foregone conclusion that he would become the next Prime Minister of Australia.

To try and counter the electoral threat from Rudd, the Liberals have posted an advertisement on YouTube with insulting comments about Rudd, with comments made by Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Craig Emerson, Peter Garrett, Stephen Smith, Stephen Conroy, Kate Ellis, and former politicians Graeme Richardson and Mark Latham. If the Rudd-Abbott exchange in Parliament on Thursday is any indication of what the election campaign will be like, it going to be a very highly competitive one, where now both Abbott and Rudd will be fighting for their political lives.

A Morgan Opinion poll taken on Wednesday night of 2000 people in marginal seats around Australia indicated 49.5% support for labor and 50.5% support for the Liberal National Party, a rise of more than 7 percentage points for labor almost instantaneously. A Newspoll released on Thursday showed a 50/50 dead heat between the two major parties.

So when will the election be held? Prime Minister Rudd in the parliament on Thursday morning indicated that it might be later than sooner, giving him an opportunity to reestablish his authority in the position of prime minister. He may travel to Jakarta next week for an annual bilateral meeting next week, takeover chairmanship of the G20, and take Australia's seat in the UN Security Council, all events that will show him as the statesman he sees himself as. Rudd's public manner since his election last night indicates that he means business and is determined to win the coming election. It would be hard seeing him miss these events for anything.

So the Australian election that must be held within the next four months looks like being strongly fought by two adversaries who don't take kindly to defeat. It's going to be competitive again, where the Australian electorate will likely polarize this time and vote for the major parties, squeezing out the independents from the lower house. The events of yesterday will be quickly forgotten, where the business of the day will become the main focus of the electorate.

Rudd is well aware that there are a number of Australians suffering financially in the outer suburbs, where real unemployment rates may actually be higher due to statistical definitions used by the Australian Department of Statistics. He declared the China resources boom over and wants to revive manufacturing where the lower Australian dollar will assist. He also knows that the youth of Australia are indifferent to politics and winning them over will greatly assist in securing victory. He also needs to get business on side, after abandoned tax cuts, issues over union rights to visit workplaces, and 457 visa issues. It is also unlikely Rudd will strengthen the mining tax, as he wants to woe the mining magnates who Abbott has been courting of late.

Australia will be presented two visions in the coming election, where Rudd may escape the baggage of the former Gillard Government, where the campaign will be like two opposition leaders fighting for the No. 1 job, with no prize for second place.

One can also see over the last couple of weeks adjustments to Abbott's rhetoric and narrative. Expect Abbott to put up more vision of what Australia would be like under an Abbot Government during this campaign, as this is the weakness that Rudd will exploit to the hilt. Conversely, Abbott will exploit the near collapse of Labor, which is almost as catastrophic as the Labor split in 1955 which cost Government for almost two decades.

Some Liberal members tonight are even contemplating whether they were right to ditch Malcolm Turnbull as opposition leader in 2010.  
The smile Rudd has been holding back in front of camera is tell-tale of his own deep satisfaction in extracting revenge on Gillard and resting back the premiership which he had long felt was taken from him cunningly.

However for Rudd to pull off a victory will still be a tall order. The labor party is in tatters, he still has to pull together a ministry, there are still a lot of voters fed up with labor's infighting and want a change, and Abbott is still a formidable opponent.
Expect the next four months to be very eventful in Australian politics, while two 'opposition leaders' show the Australian people all their tricks.


June 28, 2013

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Reinvigorating Rural Malaysia - New Paradigms Needed

Murray Hunter

 

As urban Malaysia has grown and prospered, the rural hinterlands have generally declined. Back in the 1980s approximately 70% of Malaysia's land was considered rural, where today 72% of Malaysia is urbanized with a growth rate of 2.4%. With this, the rural-urban divide within Malaysia has been growing, where substantially very little is being done to directly alleviate the problem.

Rural sector development has not been debated very much over the last few decades, even though the primary sector still represents almost 12% of GDP and employs more than 11% of the population. There are many rural issues that affect the future of Malaysia in much greater magnitude than the rural contribution to GDP and employment. The sustainability of Malaysia as an eco(n)-system, the country's cultural basis, and even political destiny is tied up with rural evolution. But the current "health" of rural Malaysia leaves a lot to be desired. Go on to the full text


June 23, 2013

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Can there be a National Unity Government in Malaysia?

Murray Hunter

 

With the perceived weakening of Najib Bin Razak's position of tenure as Malaysian Prime Minister, there is deep speculation within the country about moves afoot to form a national unity government.

Since the Barisan National's re-election on May 5, there has been a distinct shift in stance towards 'Ketuanan Melayu' or Malay privilege, at the cost of 1Malaysia inclusive philosophy. There is now little talk about the Government Transformation Program, and after a relaxed stance towards rallies by the opposition, authorities are now taking stern action towards Anwar's 505 movement with mass arrests of demonstrators over the weekend. Even Najib's calls to make UMNO more inclusive has aggravated many within his party.

According to political pundits, Najib Bin Razak is still prime minister, only because there is currently no other creditable and popular figure who could take the mantle of leadership away from him.

If we go back to pre-May 5 feeling in the community, there was great anticipation that an era of change was about to sweep the country. There was excitement on the streets with an almost carnival atmosphere. But the result on election night disappointed so many people, where denial and claims of massive cheating showed that many refused to accept the result. This has left the country just as divided as it was before the election. Nothing was settled and politicking rather than governance is dominating the national narrative. Anwar Ibrahim is pushing the Government into a corner with his national 505 tour disputing the election result which seems to be directly challenging Najib to take action against him.  Go on to the full text


June 16, 2013

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Will Australian Labor Remain Principled and fall on its own Sword?

Murray Hunter

 

Julia Gillard's Federal Labor Government looks like being totally desecrated in the coming election, potentially leaving Labor with only a small hand-full of seats in the new parliament with an Abbot Liberal National Party Government. Such a situation could leave Labor in the political wilderness for many years without much hope of regaining power for a generation just like Labor was in opposition for 23 years until Gough Whitlam gained power back in 1972 under a platform of change over a tired Liberal National Party Government. Many Labor members of Parliament have closely examined the latest polling and realize they have almost no chance of retaining their seats under Prime Minister Gillard leading the election campaign. Many pollsters believe that Ms. Gillard's personal unpopularity maybe generally holding down the potential Labor vote.

Meanwhile Kevin Rudd is wandering around outer suburban shopping malls in marginal seats, being mobbed like a pop star and looking a winner on television. This is in contrast to Ms. Gillard's appearances which make her look cornered and on the defensive. Rudd has always been able to use the media exceptionally well in contrast to Gillard who prefers the parliament as a forum to her advantage.

At the same time Labor factions are in disarray and contemplating what the political future would be like on the opposition benches under a conservative Abbott Government, capable of becoming a Howard style Government of union bashing. If Abbott down the track of any future government he leads introduces workplace reforms, they might have the potential to destroy the Australian Union Movement as Australians have known it. This scenario has from the Labor perspective brought about much thinking and discussion about how to remedy this oncoming disaster.

Labor senator Trish Crossin who was tipped off from her No. 1 position on the senate ticket by Prime Minister Gillard's personal intervention, has come out publicly stating that Rudd would be the better person to lead Labor into the election. However as of today, Kevin Rudd has indicated that he will not mount a challenge against Julia Gillard. Go on to the full text


June 11, 2013

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Finding a long term solution in the 'Deep South' of Thailand

Murray Hunter
 

With the apparent stall in negotiations between the Thai Government and Barisan Revolusi Patani (BRN) over the violence of the 'Deep South', one must start considering how long before a solution to this lingering insurgency problem can be found

With roughly 5,300 people being killed since 2004, with 45 killed and 75 injured since the negotiations between the Thai Government and BRN began negotiations with Malaysia mediating, there are calls by opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva to suspend negotiations with the BRN until the level of violence is lowered. There are also risks that the military may go on the offensive again and conduct pre-emptive raids on suspected 'terrorist' hideouts.

These apparently stalled negotiations could be interpreted to mean that the BRN are not the sole voice for the various insurgent groups in the 'Deep South' and some of these groups feel angry that the BRN is grandstanding in public claiming to represent those in the south with grievances. In fact if one drives from Hat Yai in Songkhla Province through Petani, Yala, and Narathiwat, what is most striking is the diversity and fragmentation of 'Malay' Muslims within the 'Deep South'. There are those who live by the coast, those that live in the mountains around Yala, those who live in rubber estates within Narathiwat, and the urban Malay Muslims. All have different interests, livelihoods, and leaders, where by far, the majority are peace loving people. Go on to the full text

08.06.2013

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Islamic Freedom in ASEAN

Murray Hunter
 

Almost half of the 629 million people living within the ASEAN region are Muslims. Within the ten countries of ASEAN, three countries Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, and Malaysia have Muslim majorities, and the remaining seven countries host Muslim minorities, ranging from 0.1% in Vietnam to nearly 16% in Singapore. Due to the lack of any recent census data in many ASEAN countries, obtaining accurate figures of the Muslim population is extremely difficult, where estimates vary widely.

In the Muslim majority states of ASEAN, Islam provides a source of political legitimacy for government and its leaders. Within the Muslim minority states, there are increasing aspirations for an Islamic society which today is expressed through the demand for Shariah (Islamic law), Madrasas (Islamic schools), Halal practices (what is permitted under Islam), and most importantly religious and cultural recognition.

Centuries ago Islam promoted both an enlightened intellectual and socially progressive culture which brought many societies to the forefront of art, medicine, scientific discovery, philosophy, and creative civilization. However today we see a large proportion of the Ummah (Muslim community) living in poverty and isolated from the rest of the world community. Islam once the basis of a progressive society is now seen by many as backward and irrelevant. Most Islamic societies of today are struggling to keep pace with the rest of the world, creating a dangerously wide gap between Muslims and non-Muslims.

If we subscribe to Richard Florida's concepts of socially determined creativity, then religious freedom would have great influence upon the level of a society's innovation, and ability to solve the problems it faces as a community in a socially and spiritually wise manner. Within the Islamic world this would hinge upon;

1. The freedom to practice Islam,     2. The freedom to express Islam, and        3. The freedom to produce new social intellectual output that will enable the evolution of a progressive Islamic society. Go on to the full text


03.06.2013

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PUBLICATIONS:

      The return of Kevin Rudd as Australian PM: For how long? - Murray Hunter

      Reinvigorating Rural Malaysia - New Paradigms Needed - Murray Hunter

      Can there be a National Unity Government in Malaysia? - Murray Hunter

      Will Australian Labor Remain Principled and fall on its own Sword? - Murray Hunter

      Finding a long term solution in the 'Deep South' of Thailand - Murray Hunter

      Islamic Freedom in ASEAN - Murray Hunter
  
      Multiculturalism is dead in Europe – MENA oil and the (hidden) political price Europe pays for it - Author: Anis Bajrektarevic

      Malaysia: It was Never About the Election It was always about what would happen afterwards - Murray Hunter

      Enriching the Sustainability Paradigm - Murray Hunter
 
      Does Australia's 2013 Defence White Paper Signal a Strategic Withdraw? - Murray Hunter

      Where is Saudi Arabian Society Heading? - Abdullah Abdul Elah Ali Sallam & Murray Hunter University Malaysia Perlis

      Critical Similarities and Differences in SS of Asia and Europe - Prof. Anis H. Bajrektarevic

      Searching for an end game in the Korean Crisis - Murray Hunter

      Turks suspicious towards German Government - Dr. Hubertus Hoffmann

      The high Australian Dollar: Whose interests is the Reserve Bank of Australia looking after? - Murray Hunter

      Is Secretary Kerry's trip to China a "face saving" measure? - Murray Hunter

      Asia-Pacific at the Crossroads - The Implications for Australian Strategic Defense Policy - Murray Hunter

      Obama's Korean Peninsula "Game" Strategy seeks to achieve a wide range of objectives in his "Asian Pivot" - Murray Hunter

      Institute for the research of genocide - IGC Letter Regarding Vuk Jeremic Agenda in UN

      Who rules Singapore? - The only true mercantile state in the world - Murray Hunter

      The Thai Deep South: Both Malaysia and Thailand Desperately Seeking Success - Murray Hunter

      The desperate plight of Islamic education in Southern Thailand - Murray Hunte

      Who makes public policy in Malaysia? - Murray Hunter

      MENA Saga and Lady Gaga - (Same dilemma from the MENA) - Anis H. Bajrektarevic

      Australia's National Security Paper: Did it amount to lost opportunities? The policy you have when you don't have a policy - Murray Hunter

      Are "B" Schools in Developing Countries infatuated with 'Western' Management ideas? - Murray Hunter

      The Stages of Economic Development from an Opportunity Perspective: Rostow Extended - Murray Hunter

      Who Really Rules Australia?: A tragic tale of the Australian People - Murray Hunter

      Europe: Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed, and Something Blue - Murray Hunter

      Back to the future: Australia's "Pacific Solution" reprise - Murray Hunter

      Hillary to Julia "You take India and I'll take Pakistan", while an ex-Aussie PM says "Enough is enough with the US" - Murray Hunter

      Entrepreneurship and economic growth? South-East Asian governments are developing policy on the misconception that entrepreneurship creates economic growth. - Murray Hunter

      FOCUSING ON MENACING MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENTS, ENDANGERING SECURITY AND STABILITY OF WESTERN BALKAN* - Brig Gen (Rtd) Dr. Muhammad Aslam Khan, Pakistan

      Australia "Do as I say, not as I do" - The ongoing RBA bribery scandal - Murray Hunter

      Australia in the "Asian Century" or is it Lost in Asia? - Murray Hunter

      Surprise, surprise: An Islam economy can be innovative - Murray Hunter

      Do Asian Management Paradigms Exist? A look at four theoretical frames - Murray Hunter

      What China wants in Asia: 1975 or 1908 ? – addendum - prof. dr. Anis Bajraktarević

      ASEAN Nations need indigenous innovation to transform their economies but are doing little about it. - Murray Hunter

      From Europe, to the US, Japan, and onto China: The evolution of the automobile - Murray Hunter

      Missed Opportunities for ASEAN if the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) fails to start up in 2015 - Murray Hunter

      Lessons from the Invention of the airplane and the Beginning of the Aviation Era - Murray Hunter

      Elite educators idolize the “ high flying entrepreneurs” while deluded about the realities of entrepreneurship for the masses: - Murray Hunter

      The Arrival of Petroleum, Rockefeller, and the Lessons He taught Us - Murray Hunter - University Malaysia Perlis

      Ethics, Sustainability and the New Realities - Murray Hunter

      The Dominance of “Western” Management Theories in South-East Asian Business Schools: The occidental colonization of the mind. - Murray Hunter

      How feudalism hinders community transformation and economic evolution: Isn’t equal opportunity a basic human right? - Murray Hunter

      On Some of the Misconceptions about Entrepreneurship - Murray Hunter

      Knowledge, Understanding and the God Paradigm - Murray Hunter

      Do Confucian Principled Businesses Exist in Asia? - Murray Hunter

      Samsara and the Organization - Murray Hunter

      Integrating the philosophy of Tawhid – an Islamic approach to organization. - Murray Hunter

      What’s with all the hype – a look at aspirational marketing - Murray Hunter

      Does Intrapreneurship exist in Asia? - Murray Hunter

      One Man, Multiple Inventions: The lessons and legacies of Thomas Edison - Murray Hunter

     People tend to start businesses for the wrong reasons - Murray Hunter

     How emotions influence, how we see the world? - Murray Hunter

     How we create new ideas - Murray Hunter

     Where do entrepreneurial opportunities come from? - Murray Hunter

     The five types of thinking we use - Murray Hunter

     Evaluating Entrepreneurial Opportunities: What’s wrong with SWOT? - Murray Hunter

     How motivation really works - Murray Hunter

     The Evolution of Business Strategy - Murray Hunter

     Not all opportunities are the same: A look at the four types of entrepreneurial opportunity - Murray Hunter

     Do we have a creative intelligence? - Murray Hunter

     Imagination may be more important than knowledge: The eight types of imagination we use - Murray Hunter

     The environment as a multi-dimensional system: Taking off your rose coloured glasses - Murray Hunter

     Generational Attitudes and Behaviour - Murray Hunter

     Groupthink may still be a hazard to your organization - Murray Hunter

     Perpetual Self conflict: Self awareness as a key to our ethical drive, personal mastery, and perception of entrepreneurial opportunities - Murray Hunter

     The Continuum of Psychotic Organisational Typologies - Murray Hunter

     There is no such person as an entrepreneur, just a person who acts entrepreneurially - Murray Hunter

     Go Home, Occupy Movement!!-(The McFB– Was Ist Das?) - prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

     Diplomatie préventive - Aucun siècle Asiatique sans l’institution pan-Asiatique - prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic

     Democide Mass-Murder and the New World Order - Paul Adams

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Crans Montana video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tN8tam1nRQ
 

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