

Ing. Salih CAVKIC
orbus editor in chief


Murray Hunter
University Malaysia Perlis

Perpetual Self conflict: Self
awareness as a key to our ethical drive, personal mastery, and perception of
entrepreneurial opportunities.
Murray Hunter

The Continuum of Psychotic Organisational Typologies
Murray Hunter

There is no such person as an entrepreneur, just a person who acts
entrepreneurially
Murray Hunter

Groupthink may still be a hazard to your organization - Murray Hunter

Generational Attitudes and Behaviour - Murray Hunter

The environment as a multi-dimensional system: Taking off your rose
coloured glasses
- Murray Hunter

Imagination may be more important than knowledge: The eight types of
imagination we use - Murray Hunter

Do we have a creative intelligence? - Murray Hunter

Not all opportunities are the same: A look at the four types of
entrepreneurial opportunity -
Murray Hunter

The Evolution of Business Strategy
- Murray Hunter

How motivation really works - Murray Hunter

Evaluating Entrepreneurial Opportunities: What’s wrong with SWOT? -
Murray Hunter

The
five types of thinking we use - Murray Hunter

Where do entrepreneurial opportunities come from? - Murray Hunter

How
we create new ideas - Murray Hunter

How emotions influence, how we see the world? - Murray Hunter

People tend to start businesses for the wrong reasons - Murray Hunter

One Man, Multiple Inventions: The lessons and legacies of Thomas Edison
- Murray Hunte

Does Intrapreneurship exist in Asia?
- Murray Hunter

What’s
with all the hype – a look at aspirational marketing
- Murray Hunter

Integrating
the philosophy of Tawhid – an Islamic approach to organization
- Murray Hunter

Samsara and the Organization - Murray Hunter

Do Confucian Principled Businesses Exist in Asia? - Murray Hunter

Knowledge,
Understanding and the God Paradigm - Murray Hunter

On Some of the Misconceptions about
Entrepreneurship - Murray Hunter

How feudalism hinders community transformation and economic evolution: Isn’t
equal opportunity a basic human right? - Murray Hunter

The Dominance of “Western” Management Theories in South-East Asian Business
Schools: The occidental colonization of the mind. - Murray Hunter

Ethics, Sustainability and the New Realities - Murray Hunter

The Arrival of Petroleum, Rockefeller, and the Lessons He taught Us - Murray
Hunter - University Malaysia Perlis

Elite
educators idolize the “ high flying entrepreneurs” while deluded about the
realities of entrepreneurship for the masses: -
Murray Hunter

Lessons from the Invention of the airplane and the Beginning of the Aviation
Era - Murray Hunter

Missed Opportunities for ASEAN if the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) fails
to start up in 2015 - Murray Hunter

From Europe, to the US, Japan, and onto China: The evolution of the
automobile - Murray Hunter

ASEAN Nations need indigenous innovation
to transform their economies but are doing little about it.
- Murray Hunter

Do Asian Management Paradigms Exist? A look at four theoretical frames -
Murray Hunter

Surprise, surprise: An Islam economy can be innovative - Murray Hunter

Australia in the "Asian Century" or is it Lost in Asia? - Murray Hunter

Australia "Do as I say, not as I do" - The ongoing RBA
bribery scandal - Murray Hunter

Entrepreneurship and economic growth? South-East Asian
governments are developing policy on the misconception that entrepreneurship
creates economic growth. - Murray Hunter

Hillary to Julia "You take India and I'll take Pakistan", while an ex-Aussie
PM says "Enough is enough with the US" -
Murray Hunter

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Malaysia: Desperately needing a new national narrative
Murray Hunter
The
ritualistic month long celebration of Merdeka (independence) activities
have largely lost their meaning. Discussion about the roles that
different groups played in the road to independence has largely been
rewritten to support the current rulers of today. The celebration of
31st August, the day Malaya gained independence from the British as the
major national day seems to exclude the aspirations of Sabahans and
Sarawakians, where on 16th September 1963 they joined Malaya and
Singapore in a union called Malaysia. Groups like the Communist Party of
Malaya which fought and lost many lives against both the British and
Japanese are almost totally excluded from the nation's Merdeka
narrative.
This is all occurring in an environment desperately in need of a
narrative of inclusiveness.
The current Merdeka celebration suppresses the generation of new ideas
and a national creativity that could spring up from an environment of
inclusiveness. The Merdeka celebrations have severed any empathetic
connections between Malaysia's the various elements within the rich and
diverse history of the country, replacing it with a single narrative one
would find on a cellulose film like "Tanda Putera". A whole generation
of people now exist who behave according to the beliefs and values
incorporated within this narrow narrative.
This denies the cascade of alternative realities and their accompanying
narratives which stifles national creativity and evolution that Malaysia
needs to face the challenges before it.
The Merdeka celebrations fail to incorporate any evolving aspirations
that would promote and enhance the semblance of national unity.
Ironically under the Mahathir years, a strong national narrative existed
which at the time appeared to be shared by middle class Malaysian
society. Malaysia in the 80s and early 90s had a deep sense of national
pride where any senses of inferiority were thrown out of the window with
the catch cry of "Malaysia Boleh". Many people at the time believed that
Malaysia was the best country to live in. Almost 25 years on these
feelings have been replaced with a sense of disappear over law and
order, corruption, religious intolerance, and self indulgence.
The fact that Malaysia has many domestic issues to solve and it's place
in the world is slipping away, according to many international rankings,
is largely out of the national discussion and public agenda. Rather it
appears division is in everybody's best interests, from school
administrations right up to the highest echelons of government.
Malaysia has lost that true spiritual unity between people that was the
catalyst that brought independence to the nation in the first place,
first with the British during the 1950s and then between the parties
that made up the Malaysian union in 1963.
What is missing today are aspirations about the purpose and 'dreams' the
country was founded upon during the struggle for independence, and
subsequent search for its identity as a nation. Malaysia as a nation is
yet to realize that diversity has a spiritual unity about it. Suppress
it and the national narrative becomes one without optimism for a 'just
and equitable society'.
The current national narrative is one captive under the old traditional
caste system with little relevance to the needs of contemporary society.
Consequently the Malaysian mind is a prisoner of this paradigm, unlikely
to break free to enable an enlightened society.
The Malaysian rulers have felt insecure with their own values,
preferring to adopt a neo-colonial development paradigm of unquestioned
growth, and development and profiteering. Development has been a game
for the elite, without any questioning of this occidental paradigm.
Greed and intolerance have developed into two of the most important post
Merdeka qualities. This has been at a great cost to the development of
any sense of shared spiritualism about the country. Malaysia is in need
of the qualities of compassion, tolerance, mercy and forgiveness as the
assumptions behind any national development agenda. This is where the
universal values of Islam are important and where the true sense of an
Islamic state really exists. Islam must be viewed as a way to enhance
the quality of society rather than a tool to control society.
The banning of books, the demolition of buildings, and the suppression
of many practices is causing the cream of Malaysia's society to flee.
Repression through brute force has cost the country dearly. Crony
capitalism and corruption is keeping Malaysia in the relative 'dark
ages'. A relative static view of the economic pie lowers any national
sense of vision. This parochial thinking is preventing any vision of a
progressive and prosperous Malaysia in the coming decades, which may
actually force Malaysia to become a slave to the new emerging world
order.
Malaysia must find its own dream rather than adopting those of other
nations. The aspirations of multi-media super corridors, Cyberjaya, and
biotechnology clusters, are the stuff of other peoples' dreams,
preventing the creation of something that could be uniquely Malaysian.
Many groups are dispossessed and have no part in the national narrative.
Rather capitalistic greed entrenched within 'so-called' development
projects in the name of national development and unity continue to
by-pass the poor and needy. Malaysia is not only divided by race, but by
socio-economic class, taking the country further away from any notion of
a single 'Bangsa Malaysia".
History has been written by those who have dominated society. Malaysians
have been blinded by the political paradigm created by those who rule,
preventing people from seeing new possibilities. This history doesn't
match Malaysia's contemporary aspirations.
The evils of this progress will be felt by future generations of
Malaysians who will have to pay dearly when picking up the pieces of a
destitute and stripped environment that others before them have ravaged.
As UMNO, the ruling party goes back into the shell of 'Ketuanan Melayu'
(Malay superiority), the language of intolerance and inequality will
continue and maintain a divided Malaysia. This ignores the needs of a
rapidly changing society, which will almost certainly bring further
friction where the illusion of harmony may come to an abrupt end.
The current divisions within UMNO are serving the interests of a select
few who can dictate the agenda. This will prevent UMNO learning how to
reengage its traditional constituency again and reform itself in the
spirit of Merdeka once again.
However at the same time, the popular vote of the last election strongly
indicates that the majority of people are looking for some form of
genuine change within Malaysian society. But, the election was really
just a hope or even fantasy, that any outcome would actually bring
change of any significant nature. Real change could not occur, as all
the parties involved within the political process are institutionalized.
Any real change requires a complete rebirth of ideas and new processes
to accompany them. This requires a totally frank national dialogue in
the spirit of accepting diversity in the spirit of those people who
worked together to achieve Merdeka more than 50 years ago.
One may have to question the results of the Malaysian political system
as being an occidental outcome, where a Malaysian solution is required.
The Westminster system supports an adversarial system of government and
opposition. Maybe the Malaysian political process should be much more
consultative, like it once was. National unity coalitions may serve
Malaysia better than the current adversarial system of government and
opposition. It's time to explore these possibilities for the sake of
Malaysia's future.
Policy must be looked at through apolitical eyes, consensus and
bi-partisanship. This is more the Malaysian way, where this new sense of
national unity will also help develop this elusive or even mythical
'Malay unity' that many are seeking. Malaysia is not yet a large enough
country where it can afford to divide it's administrative talent between
government and opposition. All hands are needed on the deck of
government for Malaysia to prosper.
The underlying message of GE-13 in terms of both the popular vote and
seat results could be interpreted as a general wish for all to work
together regardless of race, colour, or creed.
This is where the new Malaysia could be born, where justice and equity
could be achieved. Malaysians must move onto new truths and
reconciliations in the belief of one nation Malaysia. Otherwise Malaysia
will continue to be divided with increasing frictions.
This new rebirth requires a scrapping of the current race based
political system, something often talked about. Race based idealism must
be replaced with policy based idealism, where governments work upon a
platform based on consensus. Ritual must be replaced with principled
pragmatism with ample social discussion on how Malaysia should be shaped
for the future.
by Murray Hunter / August 30th, 2013
One Man's view of
the world and a thousand faceless men: Singapore's cadre system
Murray Hunter
The
'modern father' of Singapore Lew Kuan Yew, who is also the father of the
current prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, launched his latest book "One
Man's View of the World" recently. In this forthright and frank book Lee
gave his views on major powers and regions of the world, often with
scathing remarks about Singapore's neighbors and past Chinese leaders.
What more, this book has been endorsed by former US Secretaries of State
Henry Kissinger and George Schultz.
The book is full of interviews made by Lee's editorial team. They were
defensive of his past actions and policies, yet very critical of others,
not even sparing the daughter of former prime minister Goh Chok Tong who
migrated to Bradford UK with her English husband. What was even more
valuable for future historians was his candidness about the afterlife
and total pragmatism behind what actions he took during his tenure of
influence over the island nation.
However Lee's book is totally silent on the mechanism that maintained
his tenure and influence over Singapore, an issue that is much alive in
the local blogs, the Peoples' Action Party cadre system, something that
political commentators domiciled within Singapore are very hesitant to
discuss. Very much part of Lee Kuan Yew's pragmatic approach to solving
problems.
The People’s Action Party (PAP) was conceptualized out of friendships
between Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, and Toh Chin Chye during their
education in Britain. In 1954, with the help of trade unions that
represented the Chinese educated majority, a left leaning nationalist
party the PAP was formed. With the help of Lim Chin Siong and Fong Swee
Suan the party would appeal to the Chinese educated working class and
create a broad base of support. The PAP started out as a mass
mobilization party based upon a Leninist model. Much of this model is
still intact within the party today.
The PAP is well disciplined and cohesive, with extremely powerful
machinery on the ground. Leadership is very much ‘top down’ through an
instituted cadre system. This has been partly kept to prevent any future
hostile takeover attempts. A potential cadre must be recommended by a
member of parliament, and then the candidate is interviewed a number of
times by a committee appointed by the Central Executive Committee (CEC),
which will include 4 to 5 ministers and members of parliament. There may
be up to 1,000 cadres in the party today, however this exact number is
kept a secret. A cadre has the right to attend the party conference and
vote for the leadership every two years.
Consequently, political power is centered in the Central Executive
Committee, headed by the Secretary-General, the head of the party, who
is usually also the Prime Minister. There is a very strong overlap
between CEC members and cabinet ministers. Twelve members are elected by
the cadre and six are appointed. Any outgoing CEC member must recommend
a list of potential candidates to fill his/her position for the CEC. The
CEC looks after the Young PAP, Women’s Wing, selects cadres, and
parliamentary candidates.
Ordinary party members are screened before they can join the PAP.
Potential members must demonstrate some involvement in community before
memberships are approved. Lee Kuan Yew did not want a mass party with
populist demands, and also wanted to avoid the problems of ‘quanxi’
within the party. Party members are basically unpaid volunteers, serving
their MPs on branch sub-committees, and help mobilize support during
elections.
By international political party standards the PAP is very small, maybe
15,000 members, with a small central administrative machinery. There is
a small HQ executive committee that oversees the daily administration of
the party, i.e., maintaining party accounts, memberships, overseeing
committees work, publications, and branch coordination.
Like Lee, the major ideology of the PAP is pragmatism, meritocracy,
multiculturalism, and communitarianism. The PAP is pro-economic
intervention through fiscal policy and government enterprise
involvement, within a generally free market backdrop. The party strongly
rejects the concepts of Western liberal democracy, citing a philosophy
based upon ‘Asian values’ as the guiding principles of social
development. Perhaps one of the greatest concerns of the PAP, reflected
in the way it is structured and leadership is institutionalized, is the
issue of succession, where it is believed that succession is the root of
stability. Formal and informal rules and norms, and procedures guide who
can and who cannot stand for party and public office.
Singapore's cadre system is partly responsible for the countries success
story, but at the same time is an albatross around the Government's
neck, arguably responsible for the 'groupthink' culture many local blogs
are critical of in contemporary Singapore society today.
Since 1963 the Singapore Government has turned the island from a sleepy
backwater into one of the world’s most vibrant economies. Although
nobody can fault the ruling party which has governed Singapore for more
than 50 years of abandoning its responsibilities, many wish that it
would tackle these responsibilities with some heart and connect
emotionally with the people.
Times are rapidly changing in the island republic. There is genuine
disenchantment with rising prices, the influx of foreign workers,
competition for jobs, crowded public places, rising home prices, rising
cost of education, and the widening income gap in Singapore. There is
even some feeling among Singaporeans with the migration of foreign
professionals, they may descend to becoming second class citizens within
their own country. Migration will be expected to continue as the local
Singapore population is aging. Today it is not uncommon to see the old
and infirm waiting on restaurant tables, clearing rubbish in the
streets, or even scavenging into rubbish bin. Singapore’s GINI index has
declined from 0.433 in 2000 to 0.465 in 2010 and is similar to many
African and South American countries. Social ills like erosion of trust,
crime, obesity, teen pregnancy, mental health and drug addiction, is
more closely associated with income inequality rater than low average
per-capita income. Consequently the electoral landscape is quickly
beginning to change, where the PAP will not in the future be returned to
power uncontested on nomination day due to the failure of opposition
candidates to nominate for election.
The scrapping in of the PAP’s preferred candidate Tony Tan for president
in 2011 showed that there is a growing proportion of the Singapore
electorate that wants a change to the PAPs heavy handed style of
government and more scrutiny. However one of the issues that may hinder
any further decline in the PAP’s fortunes is that there is currently a
lack of any credible opposition in Singapore as an alternative
government.
From another paradigm, Singapore could be seen as the domination of one
group over another. Most of the leadership has been drawn from the Baba
Chinese community, a group cultured in Malay and “Colonial British”.
Babas strongly hold family values, community cohesiveness, and tend to
respect authority. This is in contrast to the Southern mainland Chinese
migrants to Singapore who fled oppression, and tended to oppose
authority. Singapore has been run more in the manner like a British
Colonial administrator would have aspired. Thus patriarchal leadership
with neo-Victorian values is not something the migrating Chinese
accepted openly. Singapore has seen many campaigns, incentives, and
deterrents to achieve the values of the Baba class.
Prof.
Murray Hunter,
He has been involved in Asia-Pacific business for
the last 30 years as an entrepreneur, consultant,
academic, and researcher. Murray is now an associate
professor at the University Malaysia Perlis. He'd
been also a visiting professor at a number of
universities and regular speaker at conferences and
workshops in the region. Murray is the author of a
number of books, numerous research and conceptual
papers in referred journals, and commentator on the
issues of entrepreneurship and development in a
number of magazines and online news sites around the
world. Read other articles by Murray.
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One of the major legacies of Lee Kuan Yew was the
authoritarian style of leadership and the fear it invoked into the
Singaporean psych. For decades Singaporeans were expected to fall in
line with what leaders expected without question, as they were told that
this was best for them. The bounds of what couldn’t be done were clearly
set, i.e., not to criticize leaders, not to discuss ‘sensitive’ issues,
or not to give alternative opinions. If these boundary crossings were
noticed, harsh penalties would be applied to those that crossed them.
The strong control of Lee Kuan Yew was the dominant driver of society,
and the state itself also had the responsibility of being the ‘agent of
change’. This to some degree squeezed out small private businesses as an
alternative engine to growth of the Singapore economy. This persona of
authority and control still exists today.
Singapore Government ministers appear to be disconnected with the people
who elected them. They have become so concerned about running Singapore
from an elite bureaucracy, trusted to make the best decisions for the
country to protect and improve the livelihoods of its citizens. However
as they live in some of the choicest real estate in Singapore and have
rewarded themselves with some of the highest salaries in the world, they
have become out of touch with the struggles and plight of the common
people of Singapore.
For Singapore to prosper in the long term, and for Singapore to maintain
the unique system of government that has evolved, with all the good, and
perhaps less of the bad and ugly, the PAP needs to re-evaluate itself
for the future and decide whether it is a broad based political party,
or just the extension of one man and an elite group that has ruled over
Singapore for the last 50 years?
Under the present structure of the PAP, it will be impossible for the
party to reform itself from the grassroots and allow new ideas to reach
the top. The ability of people to rise through the ranks of the party
with new ideas is heavily restricted. The Lim Chin Siong legacy saw to
that. The very way the PAP has sought both meritocracy and stability has
become its ‘Achilles heel’, paralyzing the ability to adapt to changing
Singapore, where ironically the country has been so successful in
adapting to outside factors of change while being so internally rigid.
The cadre system itself prevents change, as the selection process is a
closed system selecting only same minded people to the leadership,
subjecting government to the risks of groupthink. The challenge of
change brings uncertainty and with this comes insecurity about the
continuation of a successful paradigm of government that has served
Singapore so well in the past.
Lee Kuan Yew had dominated Singaporean politics, economy, and society
since the 1950s. The family has influenced affairs in Singapore for over
50 years, much longer than any other political family in the region. His
eldest son, Lee Hsien Loong became Prime Minister in 2004. Lee Hsien
Loong’s wife Ho Ching was CEO of Temasek Holdings. Lee Kuan Yew’s
youngest son Lee Hsien Yang is the head of Singapore Telecom. The Lees
have achieved their positions on merit and are genuinely an
exceptionally talented family. Officially, the reason given for this is
by former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong is the small talent pool in
Singapore. Both the political and business sectors appear incestuous in
Singapore, but due to the ‘city-state’ nature of the country, there
appears to be little in the way of any solution to this. When the
opportunities rose under Goh Chok Tong’s Premiership in the mid 1990s,
no moves were made to check the power of the Lee family. There is no
doubt that the Lee’s legacy is embedded in Singapore and its influence
will last decades. Just how and when this influence will begin to
dissipate remains to be seen.
However, the cadre system within the PAP is an issue within Singapore
society that will never get the time of day as an item of national
discussion.
One thousand faceless men have allowed one man's view of the world.
11.08.2013
How important is the
Australian Election?
Murray Hunter
After
only being prime minister for around six weeks, Kevin Rudd called on the
Governor General to dissolve the Parliament for an election on September
7th. There is some great irony in this date as Rudd, although Prime
Minister is running an almost traditional opposition campaign, similar
to the one he ran against then Prime Minister Howard in 2007,
campaigning on the premise of 'a new way', even though the Labor
Government has had two terms in office.
It was only a short time ago that it appeared an almost foregone
conclusion the Tony Abbott led coalition would win the next election,
decimating Labor to just a handful of seats in the process. But upon
Rudd taking over the premiership from Julia Gillard, he very quickly
gave the Australian people a sense of change by scrapping the carbon
tax, and making an announcement that no asylum seeker arriving by boat
would ever be allowed to settle in Australia.
In addition, Rudd called the election on the on the same day that the
Victorian Government agreed to school funding reforms, which appeared as
a Liberal endorsement of Labor policy. On the first evening Labor
blasted the airwaves with a Sunday night media campaign and Rudd
challenged the opposition leader to a televised debate every week of the
campaign. Rudd forfeited the G20 meeting in St. Petersburg, a surprise
for many, trying to take the initiative and use it to his advantage.
There was a sense of feeling within the Labor camp that no more
electoral advantage could be gained by holding off the election any
longer.
Tony Abbott's immediate response was to let the Australian public know
that he would not enter into any negotiations with independents to form
a minority government, should there be a hung parliament. This signaled
that the campaign would be squarely focused on the two leaders which
their respective parties have put all their trust into. This could also
be seen as an attempt to neutralize the large array of potential
independents and minor parties that will participate in the election.
In this first week of the campaign the key issue has been that of
credibility. Both camps have extolled their prowess as competent and
responsible economic managers who are the best qualified to take
Australia into the future.
The world is in an economic mess, where trends in Europe, China, and the
US hint at another recession. And as Australia is a trading nation, it
cannot escape the consequences of any world economic downturn,
especially if China is also showing signs of a slowdown in growth. China
saved Australia from a recession last time round in 2008, but 2014 will
be different. With the mineral export boom gone and with potentially
much lower commodity prices in the future, the major driver of
Australia's economic prosperity will be gone.
There are also many competitive issues concerning the domestic economy.
Company operating costs are very high from a high tax regime and
cumbersome compliance procedures, high labor rates outside normal
working hours, labor shortages in some industries, a small domestic
market which itself is not truly competitive, being dominated by a few
major companies, and relatively low level of economic activity as
consumers aren't overly willing to spend in the current environment. In
addition, there is an increasing rate of unemployment, low economic
diversity, and a high level of debt. Couple this with an aging
population with growing funding requirements for aged care and health,
serious consideration is needed about what the future of Australia
should be like.
Australia may not just face a recession this time, but a deep structural
recession that cannot be solved by manipulating interest rates and
encouraging savings, spending, or investment through fiscal policies.
The fact is in the modern Australian economy of today that is open to
the world, where critical decisions are decentralized with the Reserve
Bank of Australia independently controlling monetary policy, and the
elected Government jointly with seven state or territory Governments
fiscal policy; Australia's ability to guide its own structural economic
evolution is very limited anyway.
Australia could be described as being up the proverbial river without
any rudder or oars for that matter, helpless in determining the way
ahead for the country. This is compounded with the transactional and
reactionary approach to solving economic issues in the country. We
accept the myth that budget deficits are undesirable, and that balanced
budgets are prudent, even if the country must suffer for this. This is
not advocating the reckless running of budget deficits, but rather
advocating that the budget deficit is as much and economic tool as
interest rates are. So are Australians looking at the symptoms of our
economic situation rather than looking at the underlying causes and
effects.
Abbott lowering company tax by 1.5% for firms trading under $5 million
per annum is not going to solve the structural problems. Is this going
to encourage new activities requiring new skills and forms of
competitiveness out in the world? Highly doubtful.
Although Abbott mentioned developing Northern Australia and Rudd
mentioned finding a replacement for mining began touching upon some of
the structural economic issues facing Australia, any new visions have
quickly disappeared in this early part of the campaign. Effectively, the
opportunity to put forward a new vision for the country has been
deferred perhaps to a time when it will be too late to talk about. What
has replaced this needed discussion is talk about who is better at
stopping boat arrivals, who can spend less, who can deliver solve the
climate change problem through 'book entries', and who can be trusted
with 'the job of government'.
There is less bipartisanism today than there was in the past, government
has less ability to manipulate the economy than ever before, and who
wins government will most probably be decided more on personalities than
any major policy choices.
So from this point of view the 2013 Federal election should be one of
the watershed elections to decide Australia's long term direction, but
the opportunity is being wasted to the point where this election is not
really very important at all.
Both leaders will tell the Australian people how well they can manage
the economy within the paradigm currently acceptable to the national
narrative of responsible fiscal and debt management. Both leaders will
tell the Australian people that they can best secure Australia's
borders. Both leaders will tell the Australian people they can best
manage aged care, education, and health. The narrative and catch phrases
may be different but the semantics are just the same. And this may be
why the parliament after the 2010 election was hung, and this time
around in 2013, the result may also be very close.
It looks like the decision of who will govern Australia after this
election will come down to some 20 seats. This further reduces the 2013
election to a tactical one, rather than one where new major visions are
expounded and leaders try and capture the imagination of the people.
Rudd's move to place popular ex-Queensland premier Peter Beattie as the
candidate for the marginal coalition seat of Forde shows that this is a
tactical election.
Watch the tally on election night in states like Victoria and the
results may be confused with uneven swings where seats cross over to
both parties, making any early result difficult to predict. Some states
are showing swings to the coalition like Victoria, while Queensland and
Western Australia are showing swings back to the Government. Both
leaders are playing for the same space and run the awful risk of
appearing too similar. This is where the preferences of the Greens may
actually determine the outcome of the election, although its most likely
that the coalition may just get in. It will really depend upon which
leader looks the most credible, so Rudd cannot not be written off by any
means.
Perhaps the fact that major oil fields have been found in Australia will
allow the 'lucky country' to continue to stumble along without the need
to tackle any structural issues. Australia had the gold rushes, the wool
boom, the minerals boom, and may be the next boom will be an oil boom,
so there is no need of any vision.
08.08.2013
El Indio: Seeking Symmetry
By Jamil Maidan
Flores
Category Columns, Opinion
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Tags: Asean, el indio,
Jamil
Maidan
Flores, Regional groupings, South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
The eminent academician Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic says that “there [can be] no
Asian century, without the Pan-Asian multilateral setting.” The Americas, he
says, have the Organization of American States (OAS), Africa has the African
Union, and Europe has the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE). There is no counterpart in the sprawling continent of Asia.
We do have multilateral settings, like South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), but
these are in spots of a huge continent. Wide forums like Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) have no security mandate. I add: the Bali Principles of the
East Asia Summit aren’t legally binding. To Bajrektarevic, the robust structures
in Asia are bilateral and asymmetric: US-Japan, US-Singapore, Russia-India,
Australia-Timor-Leste, etc.
Hence, the situation in Asia today, he says, is akin to that of Europe before
World War II. Neither balanced nor symmetrical, it’s unstable.
That’s one more compelling reason why regional nations should support the
proposal of Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa for an Indo-Pacific
regional treaty of friendship and cooperation. The envisioned treaty would be
something like the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in Southeast Asia, but
this time covering the larger Indo-Pacific region.
Thus, the larger region would replicate the experience of Asean countries.
Assured that the guns would remain silent, they could focus on building
confidence and common security, and the pursuit of economic and sociocultural
synergy.

The initial negotiating venue, says Marty, will be the East Asia Summit, which
groups Asean with China, South Korea and Japan as well as the United States,
Russia, India, Australia and New Zealand. Since the non-Asean participants have
all acceded to the TAC, they should have no problem committing themselves to old
commitments.
So far, only the United States has committed itself in principle to supporting
the proposal. All other foreign ministers concerned have taken official note of
it. No one has voiced objection. Several Asean diplomats have expressed personal
opinions favorable to the idea, taking care to belabor their views are not
official.
Two Asean members that should be early supporters of the proposal are Vietnam
and the Philippines. They’re on the frontline of the dispute over China’s
voracious claim to the South China Sea. Late last week the foreign minister of
Vietnam made an official visit to the Philippines. He and his Filipino
counterpart talked about working with Asean for an early start of negotiations
toward a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.
Comments are mostly in favor, some affirming the need for the projected treaty
while expressing fear there’s too little trust among relevant nations for it to
see the light of day. One Australian pundit cast doubt if a divided Asean has
the muscle to push it. There are the usual knee-jerk predictions that China will
shoot it down.
The dilemma is that while progress toward the proposed treaty must be
incremental — it has to be painstakingly crafted and chewed over — the need for
it is urgent. Any time, any day, violent conflict could erupt in the region for
three reasons cited by Marty: the trust deficit within and among nations, the
unresolved territorial disputes all over the region, and the profound
geopolitical changes taking place within it.
There is also that lack of symmetry in the bilateral alliances involving the
regional nations. This can only be remedied by a comprehensive and binding
multilateral structure that would give the region greater stability.
That can only be an Indo-Pacific treaty of friendship and cooperation.
Jamil Maidan Flores is a Jakarta-based writer whose interests include philosophy
and foreign policy. He is also an English-language consultant for the Indonesian
government. The views expressed here are his own.
August 5, 2013.
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- prof. dr. Anis Bajrektarevic\/span|

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