World Security Network reporting from Washington D.C. in USA, April 23, 2012

Dear Cavkic Salih,
 

WSN Senior Vice President Dieter Farwick (left) with Walter Laqueur, member of the WSN International Advisory Board: "In Europe there has been in recent decades a loss of dynamism, of energy, of self-confidence. No one can say for certain why this has happened, why Europe became so tired. Was it a process of ageing? Perhaps, but more than once in history such a process was reversed, nations (like individuals) found fresh energy just like a runner in a competitive race suddenly gets a second wind—for no obvious reason."

once again, BrigGen(ret.) Dieter Farwick, Senior Vice President of the World Security Network Foundation, took the opportunity to interview the American historian Walter Laqueur, member of the WSN International Advisory Board.

His book “Best of times, Worst of times” (2009) mirrors his life as a critical observer of worldwide politics.

Six years ago (“The last days of Europe”, 2006) he reached the conclusion that Europe had little chance to maintain its position as a Global Player. WSN published the interview, "Many Europeans were living in a Fool's Paradise", with Walter Laqueur conducted by Dieter Farwick on January 3, 2007. This assessment was criticized by several American and European readers who predicted that, on the contrary the 21^st century would be dominated by Europe with its political and social culture.

Just recently Walter Laqueur published his new book ”After the Fall. The End of the European Dream and the Decline of a Continent”. This new book is much more than an update of his former book on Europe. It offers new analyses and new perspectives.

Dieter Farwick: I remember quite well the debate about your prognosis at the end of 2006. Your conclusion was based among other things upon the demographic developments in Europe with its aging and greying population and an “Islamisation” in major European cities.

Now, some five years later, are you still convinced that you were right or do you have to correct your predictions?

Walter Laqueur: I was right—but not because I am such a good prophet.. I was writing after all not about the future but described things that had already taken place. But many did not want to see them. Why? Because it is part of the human condition not to accept unpleasant facts. Because it is part of the human condition to engage in wishful thinking. It is better to be mistaken because of excessive optimism rather than be right because of pessimism. Think of Cassandra in Greek mythology. She was always right in her predictions (Apollo had given her this gift). But this did not at all add to her popularity. She was a tragic figure.

Dieter Farwick: Have your critics conceded that they were mistaken?

Walter Laqueur: Some have but not all. Some critics, on the contrary have become very angry. They claim that those pointing to Europe’s weaknesses (and the mistakes that were committed) are dark reactionaries belonging to the extreme right. It is part of the human condition to admit mistakes only reluctantly. But it is true, excessive Euro optimism has become much rarer. Some of my optimistic critics of 2006 are now more pessimistic than I am. The Economist, this very respected weekly, belongs to them. A typical headline these days would read “Looking into the abyss”. I did not go that far then and I do not now. I believe that even if the recent attempt to establish a united Europe has failed, it does not preclude another such attempt at some future date.

Dieter Farwick: The worldwide financial and economic crisis starting 2008 in the USA was a political tsunami. In your book you write about a new world order we face today. What have been the main driving factors behind this new world order – or perhaps world disorder?

Walter Laqueur: It is too early to talk about a new world order. Of course, certain changes are obvious. Chinese influence, for instance, has become strong in Africa and to a certain extent also in Latin America. But so far this expresses itself more in economics than in politics. And in the same measure that Chinese power is growing, so are the fears and suspicions of its neighbors in South East Asia. Pressure always generates counter-pressure.

Dieter Farwick: If China, India and the United States of America will form the political Champions League, do we have to envisage more cooperation or more confrontation?

Walter Laqueur: I do not quite see India in the same league. True, it is making great economic progress but we should not ignore its internal problems which are enormous. This refers to the great and growing economic inequality, the status of the Muslims and the Dalit (the Untouchables), the challenge by various Maoist groups. And Indian economic progress is also slowing down. In general, we tend to underrate the domestic difficulties facing the rising powers and this includes also the BRIC countries, including Brazil and South Africa. As for America-Chinese relations conflict is likely not so much territorial but with regard to economic interests. But there are, of course also fields of common interest and collaboration.

Dieter Farwick: You are a renowned expert on Russia. Vladimir Putin has been elected as president for six years – with the option of another six years. Since his declaration of his candidacy there have massive demonstrations against him and his party. Some Russians see Russia on the way back to the Brezhnev era, which was characterized by stagnation and decline. So far, the many opposition groups are lacking leadership. Nor do they have a minimum program. Some are left of center, others rightwing and nationalists. They are united only through their opposition to Putin and those backing him.

 

Walter Laqueur: "The long term prospects for Russia are not good."

Walter Laqueur: The long term prospects for Russia are not good. This refers to demographic trends-- Russia is shrinking, many thousands of villages and small towns are disappearing. Will the Kremlin be able to hold on to Siberia and the Russian Far East? It is by no means certain. The Kremlin tried to reverse this trend—but had very little success. As far as the ethnic composition of the country is concerned, Russia is becoming more and more Asian—meaning Chinese and also Muslim. This is something Putin and the present leadership tries to ignore. They grew up in the belief that America (and the West in general) is the traditional enemy. They see enemies where there are none, and ignore the real challenges facing their country. At the same time the modernization of the Russian economy has made no progress. The country depends almost entirely on the export of oil and gas. In the short term Putin has no reason to worry—as long as the price of oil does not fall below USD 80-90. Most of the promises made by Putin in the recent election campaign will probably not be fulfilled. But he can always argue: True, our country faces serious problems, but the West is much worse off. This has been the official propaganda line in the past and it will be the same in future. Will they wake up one day to the realities of the world? Probably, but not very soon.

Dieter Farwick: Let’s come to Europe. You write as a historian that about hundred years ago Europe was on top. Even after the two world wars Europe maintained its role as Global Player. But what about the future? Will the EU break up? What went wrong?

Walter Laqueur: Historians know how difficult it is to predict. If people had been asked in 1810 to what nation in Europe the future would belong they would have replied, France, of course. If the same question had been asked in 1880—the answer would have been France is finished. In fact many books were published at the time with a title such as Finis Galliae. In 1910 the consensus was that the 20^th century would be the century of Germany. But again, this is not what happened. Why is it impossible today to be certain about the future? We do see certain trends above all demographic and economic and one can project these trends into the future. But unfortunately there are also other trends which cannot be quantified—and there are accidents which cannot be foreseen. We do not know what scientific and technological breakthroughs are likely to occur which might affect world affairs. Nor do we know what disasters could occur which might decisively affect future developments. As far as Europe is concerned there has been in recent decades a loss of dynamism, of energy, of self-confidence. No one can say for certain why this has happened, why Europe became so tired. Was it a process of ageing? Perhaps, but more than once in history such a process was reversed, nations (like individuals) found fresh energy just like a runner in a competitive race suddenly gets a second wind—for no obvious reason. Sometimes in history a new religion (or a secular religion) appears providing a fresh impetus. Sometimes a deep crisis awakes a nation from its slumber. It suddenly realizes that it is facing a crisis of survival. But of course, a crisis could also have the opposite effect: Decline might have gone so far that recovery is no longer possible. The pharmacological industry has invented drugs against depression—perhaps drugs against collective depression and lethargy will be discovered in future.


Dieter Farwick
Senior Vice President
World Security Network Foundation
BrigGen (ret.)
Former Force Commander and Chief Operations at NATO HQ

 

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SARAJEVO, 06.04.1992 - 06. 04. 2012

Exactly 11,541 red chairs were lined up in rows along the main street of Sarajevo -- one for every man, woman, and child killed during the siege of the city that began two decades ago by Bosnian Serb forces.

Many of the chairs are small, representing the hundreds of children killed.

Biba Mehimovic stands with her granddaughter Sara in front of the small red chairs symbolizing the 643 children who died in the siege.   Lamia Alibegovic, 13, and Elma Oduz, 14, visit the "Sarajevo Red Line" installment.

Exhibitions, concerts, and performances are being held to commemorate the start of the siege of Sarajevo by Bosnian Serb forces, which launched the 1992-95 conflict in Bosnia in which more than 100,000 people were killed and more than 2.2 million fled their homes.

According to RFE/RL's correspondent in Sarajevo, Daisy Sindelar, events organized to commemorate the anniversary are seen by many as the first opportunity for the people of Sarajevo to collectively remember the victims.

"This is a city where the war dead were buried wherever space was available, at a time when people could not move far from their houses," she said. "So parks and soccer stadiums in ordinary neighborhoods all served as impromptu graveyards. So many people feel there has never been a chance for the city to come together en masse to pay tribute to the adults and children lost during the siege."

Many Sarajevans wiped away tears as they remembered their loved ones who died during the 44-month siege, the longest in modern history.

​​Biba Mehimovic, 65, looking at the sweeping rows of small red chairs with her granddaughter Sara, 5, said she felt a range of emotions. "I'm very sad," she said. "But at the same time, I'm very proud, because Sarajevo is still a city for everyone, still a multiethnic place -- for Serbs, Croats, Jews, Roma -- everyone."

Elma Ocuz, a 14-year-old schoolgirl, also came to Titova Street to attend the commemoration events. She's too young to remember the war herself, but she has heard many stories from her parents and her older brother, who was just six months old when the war began.

"My brother was very little, and the food was gone, and it was very hard for them [her parents] to see the baby with nothing to eat," she said. "When they talk to me about it now, it's hard for me to listen because it's a very hard story. But I'm proud of my parents, because they made it. They made it."

Bosnian Serb forces laid siege to Sarajevo after the European Community recognized the independence Bosnian Muslims and Croats had voted for in a referendum opposed by the Serbs.

Hundreds Of Children Among Victims

Bosnian Serb forces aided by Serbia went on to occupy 70 percent of the country, killing and persecuting non-Serbs.

​​In the siege of Sarajevo, which began on April 6, 1992, some 380,000 people were left without electricity, water, or heating as they tried to take cover from more than 300 shells that smashed into the city each day.

Many of those who died during the siege -- including hundreds of children -- were killed by snipers.

The Bosnian conflict ended in 1995 with the Dayton peace agreement. That deal ended the fighting but left the nation strongly divided along ethnic lines, with Bosnia-Herzegovina comprising the Bosniak (Muslim) - Croat Federation and Republika Srpska.

Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quMQBJ4Xx8Y&feature=player_embedded#!
 

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Bosnia-Herzegovina 20 years ago

By Nihad Krupic

Today, 20 years ago, the most brutal aggression and genocide happen to my beloved homeland Bosnia and Herzegovina and to my people Bosniaks. Serb military forces have committed aggression, genocide, ethnic cleansing, rapes for almost 4 years on innocent Bosnian Muslims in front of all civilized World. You still remember, It was directly televised. From April 5 1992 to February 28 1996, capital City of Bosnia Sarajevo, was 1425 days under the siege, the longest one in the history. Dayle average 329 shell impacts from the Serb military posts around Sarajevo, on July 22 1993 record was sett up, 3777 shell impact. More than 10 thousand dead, 1601 children. Pazite, Snajper! ("Be careful, Sniper!") became commonplace and certain particularly dangerous streets were known as sniper alleys.

I remember 17 years ago I had a first interview with Canadian journalist in Vancouver. At the end of my story he told me I am too subjective, like I am making up the stories. Last 2 weeks Carol Off and Ana Maria Tramonti, 2 more distinguished Canadian reporters, are telling again their stories from Sarajevo. They are not Bosnians, their houses have not been shelled, they have not been raped or pushed from their homes, but they witnessed everything 20 years ago in Sarajevo and today they are again at the same spots and they are not afraid to tell that Serbs committed the most brutal aggression and genocide in Bosnia and the master mind of all of this is Serb Political leader Radovan Karadzic.
Please watch and listen their stories

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/Shows/1221254309/ID=2219547842
http://www.cbc.ca/asithappens/episode/2012/04/13/sarajevo-remembered/#socialcomments-submit

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World Security Network reporting from Berlin in Germany, April 01, 2012


Dear Cavkic Salih,

In his new book “Wege ins Abseits. Wie Deutschland seine Zukunft verspielt” ("How Germany gambles away its Future"), Osning Verlag, BrigGen ret. Dieter Farwick, Senior Vice President of the World Security Network Foundation covers the full range of current and future worldwide political developments, crises and conflicts from a German perspective.

In his 326 page book “Wege ins Abseits. Wie Deutschland seine Zukunft verspielt” ("How Germany gambles away its Future"), Osning Verlag, BrigGen ret. Dieter Farwick, Senior Vice President of the World Security Network Foundation covers the full range of current and future worldwide political developments, crises and conflicts from a German perspective. His topics range from the competition between superpowers China, India and the U.S., to the uncertain future of NATO; the unsolved “Euro crisis”; the nuclear time bomb Iran; the volatile nuclear power Pakistan; the enduring war in Afghanistan; the fragile North Korea; the “Arabellion” and its consequences; the decline of Russia; the conflict between Israel and Palestine; the problems with energy security; demographic developments; international Islamic terrorism; cyber warfare; the scarcity of “rare earths”; food and potable water; negative climate change, and silent Islamisation in Germany. His conclusion, that the Political Union of Europe was buried at the EU summit in Brussels in December 2011, is very powerful. 

All these issues must be seen in the context of our globalized world, in which no single issue can be treated in isolation and separated from the rest. The economic and financial crises that started in 2008 have revealed a worldwide net of mutual dependencies and mutual influences.

In this exclusive interview with WSN, Dieter Farwick focuses on those topics which have a major impact on Germany.

WSN: From an outside perspective Germany appears very b and competitive. Germany seems to be the only savior of both the Eurozone and Europe. In your book, you paint a bleak picture of the future of Germany and Europe. You see the risk that, at the end of the day, Germany might become the victim. Is this pessimism or realism?

Dieter Farwick: I hear this question quite often. The German government and the majority of our media do what they can to give the German public the impression that Germany travels in safe waters without major challenges. One hundred years ago, the Titanic’s passengers felt the same. The Titanic was regarded as unsinkable; they were wrong. Nowadays, the majority of Germans believe that Germany is unsinkable, too. At a minimum, the government and most media outlets strengthen this misperception. Realism tells a different story. The current positive facts and figures are hiding Germany’s dangerous mixture of severe medium term problems.

WSN: What is going wrong in Germany? What do you blame your government for?

Dieter Farwick: The government is proud of reacting pragmatically and efficiently to immediate problems. But there is no vision of Germany’s future place in a globalized and tightly interwoven world whose center of gravity is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific. As a consequence, there is no national grand strategy; no concept of ‘smart power’ as developed by Joseph S. Nye in his brilliant book The Future of Power. Germany’s present government does not want to exercise ‘hard power’ as an integral part of smart power. This government wants to celebrate a “culture of restraint” – or soft power. In addition, the government lacks leadership. Chancellor Angela Merkel is not leading her cabinet. Her ministers, from three coalition partners, follow their own agenda.

WSN: That’s a very general assessment. Give us some examples, please.

Dieter Farwick: The most damaging example in foreign affairs was Germany’s abstention in the question of UN Resolution 1973 concerning Libya. It was not the Chancellor, but the Minister of Foreign Affairs who took the decision – siding with Russia and China. He neglected the “responsibility to protect” demanded by the UN. He then worsened his mishandling by saying no to a German military commitment with NATO in Libya. Both decisions were grudgingly accepted by the Chancellor. He should have been sacked on the spot.

WSN: That’s certainly an exception. Do you have another example?

Dieter Farwick: Pressed by the Finance Minister for savings in the defense budget, the then Minister of Defense, Baron zu Guttenberg, abolished the conscript system without careful research. The conscript system was a certificate of quality for the German Armed Forces. Thirty to fifty percent of conscripts stayed voluntarily longer in the German Armed Forces than their initial contracts. They were the reservoir of both non-commissioned officers and the officer corps. Many high ranking generals and officers started their career as conscripts. Without this flow of qualified, young and skilled conscripts, the German Armed Forces will lose specialists and qualified young leaders.

WSN: Are you really arguing that Germany should use conscripts in Afghanistan?

Dieter Farwick: Certainly not. But you can educate and train young former conscripts over a shorter time to become well trained, combat ready fighters, in an experienced combat team with a high level of cultural awareness. The German Armed Forces lost this opportunity because of a single politician who persuaded, without substance, the government, the parliament and the coalition parties. He combined this decision with a reduction of the German Armed Forces from 250,000 to 185,000. The Armed Forces must now do more with less – less money and less people.

WSN: Why can’t Germany spend more money on defense, stability and security? The USA has to reduce its forces in Europe in order to improve their military clout in the Asia-Pacific region – their new, main political effort. Can NATO and EU fulfill their military missions with less? Do they have the necessary assets?

Dieter Farwick: The politico-military operation Unified Protector, against the Gaddafi regime in Libya, offers some important lessons. The first important lesson is political: only 10 out of 28 NATO nations took part. The majority was either not willing or not able to join. It was a ‘coalition of the willing’ who fought, supported by some non-NATO members like Qatar and Sweden. Without strategic support from the US, the European countries would not have been able to bring this operation to a positive end. After several weeks the UK and France even had to ask the US for supplies of precision munitions.

At its present strength, and certainly after the predicted further reductions of European armed forces, NATO and the EU will not be able to conduct even a limited military operation like Libya.

This problem of insufficient resources has been exacerbated by the Euro crisis, in reality a crisis both of most European countries – especially in the South – that have suffered under high indebtedness, and a crisis of most European banks, who had accumulated toxic loans from weak European countries.
 

BrigGen ret. Dieter Farwick, Senior Vice President of the World Security Network Foundation: "The Political Union of Europe was buried at the EU summit in Brussels in December 2011."

WSN: Does this mean that these Euro crises have had a direct impact on Europe’s willingness and capability to make up for the reduction of American forces in Europe? Is there a way out? 

Dieter Farwick: For the next few decades, rich European countries like Germany and France will have to spend trillions of Euros to help the poor countries back on track. At present, austerity measures dominate, but they do not cure sick countries. They must regain their economic competitiveness through lower wages and – hopefully – with their own currency.

There will be no resources left for defense, security and stability. The main aims and objectives are to safeguard the Euro currency. However, the risks are greater than the opportunity to save it. I firmly believe that the Euro and the Eurozone will not survive the next three years in their present form. The vision of a European Political Union was destroyed at the EU summit on December 9, 2011 in Brussels. There is a need for statesmen who can develop a new vision for Europe to regain its political power and influence in world politics.

WSN: With NATO forces downgraded: what do you think about a threat from Russia?

Dieter Farwick: I do not see a threat to Central Europe by Russia’s conventional forces. In his fascinating book The Reform of Russia’s conventional forces the British expert Roger McDermott paints a realistic but dark picture of the Russian conventional forces. Their armament and equipment lags years behind the Western forces. Their personnel are poorly trained and seriously demotivated. The military-industrial complex is corrupt and inefficient.

The only threat might come from Russia’s nuclear weapons, which are obviously still operational and target Western assets. This threat might become real if Russia faces a regime collapse.

The dominant problem for Russia is the political future of the Putin regime. Russia faces a severe demographic problem: she loses one million people per year. The population is aging and graying, many of them with chronic diseases. The social and the health systems are not able to cope with the growing tensions.

Russia is an energy power. Her economic power rests upon gas and oil. But oil production has already passed its peak. The production of oil is getting more difficult and more expensive. Russia has missed the opportunity to prepare her economy for post-oil times. With declining oil revenues, Russia will have huge problems.

The parliamentary elections on December 5, 2011, as well as the presidential elections on March 4, 2012, clearly showed that Putin has lost a lot of his previous popularity. Many people – especially from the middle classes and the young - are afraid that another six or twelve years under Putin might be a trip back into the Breshnev era, in which stagnation and decline prevailed. Russia’s opposition forces lack a charismatic leader like the imprisoned Michail Chodorkowski who is willing and able to combine the various opposing groups and orchestrate their activities. There is little hope that the Putin System will open the door to more transparency and cooperation with the middle classes and the young, not to mention democracy.

WSN: Let’s come back to your country – Germany, which is seen by many observers as the only b European country able to save Europe. In your book you give a pessimistic view of Germany’s future. What is wrong?
 

"I firmly believe that the Euro and the Eurozone will not survive the next three years in the present form."

Dieter Farwick: Like other European governments, the German government underestimated the quality and depth of the Euro crisis. They believed they could solve the problem by simply providing cash for Greece. 

They did not realize that the crises in the PIGS countries - Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – ran much deeper than previously. Exorbitant indebtedness, high unemployment and fading competitiveness on world and European markets created a negative downward spiral. From May 2010 onwards we were in a process of permanent financial aids to Greece – without visible progress.

Another mistake: Our government linked the fate of the Euro with the fate of the Eurozone and Europe. How can a currency, implemented twelve years ago, decide the fate of a 2000 year old Europe? In the 20^th century, Europe and the world coped with two terrifying world wars. Germany had its Wirtschaftswunder. All these successes were achieved without the Euro. The political signs point to a European fiscal pact, which obviously goes against the German constitution. The majority of German people are against Europe being split into four groups. They still want a unified Europe as it was originally planned: a Europe based upon solidarity, solidity and subsidiarity, not a Europe governed by bureaucrats in Brussels lacking democratic legitimacy. The European nation states should retain as much national sovereignty as possible and give Europe what is needed for positive synergetic effects.

In saving the Euro by almost any means necessary, Germany runs the risk of being overburdened, eventually becoming the victim.

In addition to the Euro crises, Germany has to cope with its own high indebtedness, a negative demographic development; with the integration and education of millions of immigrants; with a silent Islamic revolution caused by the different birth rates; as well as the threat of international Islamic terrorism combined with home-grown terrorism. The German Armed Forces are committed with about 7,000 – 8,000 soldiers in Afghanistan and in the Kosovo.

WSN: Could you elaborate on the issue of energy security?

Dieter Farwick: As a highly developed country with a high-end economy, Germany is highly dependent on a steady influx of affordable raw materials and open routes of transport to export its sophisticated products like Mercedes and Porsche cars to distant market places in Asia and Latin America. As far as energy supply is concerned, Germany needs a prudent and affordable energy mix.

The decision – caused by the Fukushima incident – to give up nuclear power by 2022 – was taken overhastily. Neither the big companies nor the power grid, from the sea in the North to the production sites in the South, are prepared for this rapid change. Germany’s previous attempt to decrease its dependence on foreign suppliers has been reversed. Our dependence has been increased, especially on Russia, as well as energy costs, which will hit the economy and private households. The prices for gasoline hit a record high – bad news for commuters. Even in the mild winter of 2011/2012 there were numerous power cuts.

WSN: What is your final prognosis for Germany over the next five years?

Dieter Farwick: Germany and Europe stand at strategic crossroads. If they move towards fiscal union, they will fall into a deep trap and the subsequent recovery will take decades; meanwhile the outside world will not take any time out in their way ahead. Germany and Europe will fall behind and lose sight of the major powers China, India and the US, even perhaps emerging powers like Indonesia and Brazil too. To the benefit of the Western world, the US will remain an indispensable world power.

With its high indebtedness, Germany lives – like many European countries – off the back of future generations. Because of the efficiencies of German entrepreneurs and its skilled workforce, Germany currently still has comparative advantages.

But if Germany must provide more financial aid, in hard currency, not loans and credits, it risks gambling its future away. Who will save the savior? Nobody. Not even China can help. Finally, there will be no more resources to cope with growing internal problems, for example the consequences of the demographic decline combined with its heavy repercussions for the social and health systems triggering social unrest.

Germany and Europe can still choose a different way ahead. It will take courage to confess and correct several former errors. But it is not too late to form a better and ber Europe – one that includes the UK. There are hard decisions ahead. They have to be taken without delay. The price might be to let weak countries leave the Eurozone temporarily, to allow them to go back to their national currency so they regain their competiveness on European and world markets. That would not be a catwalk moment for Europe. But at the end of the day, it will be better than the current indefinite horror without end.

The book "Wege ins Abseits. Wie Deutschland seine Zukunft verspielt” ("How Germany gambles away its Future") can be ordered online at Amazon and Osning Verlag, Germany.
 

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